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Increasing worries are present regarding the chance of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in last year that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the ruler cancelled this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a decision that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

However relations have later worsened again.