🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."